{ "assumptions": [ { "confidence": "medium", "description": "The model starts from the reported membership total in 1950.", "id": "start_population", "label": "Starting population" }, { "confidence": "high for recent official reports; lower for estimated historical cells", "description": "Convert baptisms and children-of-record baptisms are treated as membership additions. New children of record are not treated as same-year member additions.", "id": "membership_additions", "label": "Membership additions" }, { "confidence": "medium for the concept; low to medium for post-reporting-gap estimates", "description": "New children of record are record-intake events for children who are not yet baptized. They become membership additions only if later baptized as children of record, usually around age 8. Those baptized at age 9 or older are counted in convert baptisms, so the pipeline can leak into the convert statistic.", "id": "children_of_record_pipeline", "label": "Children-of-record pipeline" }, { "confidence": "medium for the rule; low to medium for the exact cohort estimate", "description": "The church reportedly removes lost-file records when they reach age 110. This model therefore treats inactive members reaching age 110 as record exits. Any active members older than 110 are assumed to be few enough that their effect on aggregate totals is negligible.", "id": "lost_file_age_limit", "label": "Lost-file age limit" }, { "confidence": "low to medium", "description": "Deaths of active members, inactive members reaching age 110, and names removed are treated as record exits. These fields are model inputs, not official annual report categories.", "id": "losses", "label": "Losses" }, { "confidence": "medium as a sensitivity display; low as a probability statement", "description": "The high- and low-retention scenarios vary the names-removed component by plus or minus 25%. The band is a sensitivity test, not a statistical confidence interval.", "id": "scenario_band", "label": "Uncertainty band" }, { "confidence": "high", "description": "No attendance, belief, or activity adjustment is applied directly to official membership. Activity proxies are useful comparison indicators but should not be subtracted directly from membership records.", "id": "activity_excluded", "label": "Activity excluded" } ], "externalReferences": [ { "label": "Fuller Consideration membership statistics", "url": "https://www.fullerconsideration.com/membership.php" }, { "label": "Fuller Consideration daily statistics", "url": "https://www.fullerconsideration.com/dailystats.php" }, { "label": "Mormonism Research Ministry summary of Mike Roundel growth-statistics anomaly analysis", "url": "https://mrm.org/the-robust-growth-of-mormonism" } ], "formulas": [ { "expression": "central[t] = central[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - names_removed[t]", "id": "central", "label": "Central estimate" }, { "expression": "high[t] = high[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - 0.75 * names_removed[t]", "id": "high_retention", "label": "High-retention scenario" }, { "expression": "low[t] = low[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - 1.25 * names_removed[t]", "id": "low_retention", "label": "Low-retention scenario" }, { "expression": "current_year_converts * 0.9 + prior_year_active_mormons * 0.015", "id": "gone_inactive", "label": "Gone inactive" }, { "expression": "round(prior_year_active_mormons * current_year_mormon_death_rate_per_1000 / 1000, 0)", "id": "deaths_of_active_members", "label": "Deaths of active members" }, { "expression": "cohort_age_110_births + cohort_age_103_to_110_convert_children + older_convert_cohort_average * recent_unremoved_intake_share, all scaled by prior inactive share", "id": "inactive_members_reaching_age_110", "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110" }, { "expression": "round(prior_year_gone_inactive * 0.2, 0)", "id": "names_removed", "label": "Names removed" }, { "expression": "prior_year_active_mormons + current_year_new_children_of_record + current_year_converts - current_year_deaths_of_active_members - current_year_gone_inactive", "id": "active_members", "label": "Active members" }, { "expression": "prior_year_inactive_mormons + current_year_gone_inactive - current_year_inactives_reaching_age_110 - current_year_names_removed", "id": "inactive_members", "label": "Inactive members" }, { "expression": "current_year_active_mormons * 100 / current_year_official_membership_total", "id": "activity_rate", "label": "Activity rate" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-05-03T21:52:07.806132+00:00", "id": "membership-flow-model", "interpretation": "This is an accounted-membership scenario model, not a measure of religious activity, belief, attendance, or self-identification.", "outputs": [ { "centralEstimate": 1111314, "centralMinusOfficial": 0, "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": 0.0, "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 23808, 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"role": "comparison", "value": 17509781 }, { "formula": null, "key": "converts", "label": "Convert baptisms", "provenance": "official_report", "role": "addition", "value": 308682 }, { "formula": "Children of record from 8 years prior * current CoR baptism rate", "key": "cor_baptisms", "label": "Children-of-record baptisms", "provenance": "estimate", "role": "addition", "value": 78504.1756 }, { "formula": null, "key": "new_children_of_record_cor", "label": "New children of record", "provenance": "official_report", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 91617 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_births_to_active_members", "label": "Births to active members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 69465 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_convert_children_of_record", "label": "Convert children of record", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 27825 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_gone_inactive", "label": "Gone inactive", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 287007.2885 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members", "label": "Deaths of active members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 42125 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110", "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 20486.48483 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_names_removed", "label": "Names removed", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 56338 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_active_mormons", "label": "Active members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 4882337.947 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_inactive_mormons", "label": "Inactive members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 12607829.27 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_activity_rate", "label": "Activity rate", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 27.91475854 } ], "lowRetentionEstimate": 15077395, "newChildrenOfRecord": 91617, "officialMembership": 17509781, "sources": [ "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2023-statistical-report-church-jesus-christ", "https://www.deseret.com/faith/2024/11/23/enrollment-growth-at-latter-day-saint-universities-rebuts-narrative-about-young-adults-losing-faith/", "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics" ], "year": 2024 }, { "centralEstimate": 15943697, "centralMinusOfficial": -1943515, "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.10865388077247588, "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 106771, "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7183999999999999, "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 76704, "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 30067, "highRetentionEstimate": 16484721, "inputs": [ { "formula": null, "key": "official_membership_total", "label": "Official membership", "provenance": "official_report", "role": "comparison", "value": 17887212.0 }, { "formula": null, "key": "converts", "label": "Convert baptisms", "provenance": "official_report", "role": "addition", "value": 385490.0 }, { "formula": "Children of record from 8 years prior * current CoR baptism rate", "key": "cor_baptisms", "label": "Children-of-record baptisms", "provenance": "estimate", "role": "addition", "value": 76704.2864 }, { "formula": null, "key": "new_children_of_record_cor", "label": "New children of record", "provenance": "official_report", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 91835.0 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_births_to_active_members", "label": "Births to active members", "provenance": "unknown", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 69365.0 }, { "formula": null, "key": "supplemental_convert_children_of_record", "label": "Convert children of record", "provenance": "unknown", "role": "pipeline_intake", "value": 26945.0 }, { "formula": "current_year_converts * 0.9 + prior_year_active_mormons * 0.015", "key": "supplemental_gone_inactive", "label": "Gone inactive", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 420176.069205 }, { "formula": "round(prior_year_active_mormons * current_year_mormon_death_rate_per_1000 / 1000, 0)", "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members", "label": "Deaths of active members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 43941 }, { "formula": "cohort_age_110_births + cohort_age_103_to_110_convert_children + older_convert_cohort_average * recent_unremoved_intake_share, all scaled by prior inactive share", "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110", "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 21224.221947281774 }, { "formula": "round(prior_year_gone_inactive * 0.2, 0)", "key": "supplemental_names_removed", "label": "Names removed", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "loss", "value": 57401 }, { "formula": "prior_year_active_mormons + current_year_new_children_of_record + current_year_converts - current_year_deaths_of_active_members - current_year_gone_inactive", "key": "supplemental_active_mormons", "label": "Active members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 4895545.877795 }, { "formula": "prior_year_inactive_mormons + current_year_gone_inactive - current_year_inactives_reaching_age_110 - current_year_names_removed", "key": "supplemental_inactive_mormons", "label": "Inactive members", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 12949380.117257716 }, { "formula": "current_year_active_mormons * 100 / current_year_official_membership_total", "key": "supplemental_activity_rate", "label": "Activity rate", "provenance": "analytical_model", "role": "comparison", "value": 27.368971071595727 } ], "lowRetentionEstimate": 15402673, "newChildrenOfRecord": 91835, "officialMembership": 17887212, "sources": [ "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2025-statistical-report" ], "year": 2025 } ], "range": { "endYear": 2025, "startYear": 1950 }, "summary": "A transparent cohort-flow estimate that starts with reported 1950 membership, adds reported converts and estimated children-of-record baptisms, and subtracts modelled deaths, members reaching record-retention age limits, and names removed.", "title": "Membership Flow Model" }